Mtsvane Kari — семейный гестхаус на 10 номеров в Старом Тбилиси (Booking.com, Airbnb, прямые продажи)

A 'customer' is a stay (booking): a sale is a confirmed, non-cancelled stay, and almost no guest comes back within the model's horizon, so revenue is one-off per stay. The house has a hard cap: 10 rooms × 30 nights at ≈ 85% peak occupancy ÷ 2.8 nights ≈ 90 stays a month — the booking channels are sized so the house sells ≈ 45 stays a month in low season and ≈ 85 in high season, i.e. ≈ 45% and ≈ 85% occupancy (no overbooking).

Who pays

Leisure travellers from the EU, Israel, Turkey, the Gulf, Kazakhstan and Russia-speaking countries, mostly couples and pairs of friends, staying ≈ 2.8 nights on average before heading to Kazbegi or Kakheti. Peak May–October; November–March runs at roughly half the bookings.

How it makes money

A stay brings ≈ $201.6 (2.8 nights at the average room rate, breakfast and VAT included) plus ≈ $9 commission on transfers and tours. Out of that: VAT ≈ $28, breakfast ≈ $16, laundry and supplies ≈ $9, utilities ≈ $7, payment fees and turnover tax ≈ $5; the OTA keeps ≈ 16% (≈ $32) on Booking.com and Airbnb stays. Fixed: house lease ≈ $2,800 a month, utilities and systems ≈ $520, a small team. Low-season months are close to break-even; the summer pays for the year. All profit figures are before income/profit tax.

Key assumptions

• Average daily rate ≈ 72 dollars incl. breakfast and VAT, occupancy ≈ 85% in high season and ≈ 45% in low season — estimates for a well-reviewed guesthouse in Old Tbilisi.
• Booking.com commission ≈ 15–18% (Genius/Preferred raise it) and Airbnb host-only fee ≈ 15.5% — partner terms; the commission is the acquisition cost of each stay.
• Georgia: VAT 18% is due once taxable turnover exceeds GEL 100,000 in 12 months, which a 10-room guesthouse passes in its first season; small-business status keeps 1% turnover tax on income up to GEL 500,000 (rs.ge). Employer pension contribution 2%; personal income tax 20% is withheld from salaries.
• Renovation and furnishing ≈ $60,000 for 10 rooms (≈ $6,000 per room including bathrooms). With a 10-year lease, this — not online ads — is the real cost of entering the business.
• Stay length 2.8 nights, 1.7 guests per room — estimates typical for city guesthouses in the Caucasus.
• Start capital $85,000 covers the renovation, lease during works and the first low season.
• Repeat guests: ≈ 3% of guests come back within a year — a city guesthouse lives on new travellers, so the model counts each stay as a new sale with a one-off margin; retention far below usual consumer ranges is expected here.

Risks

• Small-business status ceiling: mature revenue sits just below the GEL 500,000 limit for the 1% regime. A 10–12% price rise or a strong season pushes the guesthouse over it, onto 15% profit tax — plan the switch rather than discover it.
• Occupancy sensitivity: the model assumes ≈ 85% in high season. At 75% the house loses ≈ 65 stays a year and a noticeable share of profit, and payback slips by roughly a year.
• Tourism shocks: political tension, visa rule changes or a regional conflict can halve arrivals in one season.
• OTA dependence: ranking on Booking.com depends on reviews and price parity; a few bad reviews drop bookings sharply.
• Lease risk: the landlord may raise rent once the guesthouse is successful; negotiate a 10-year lease with capped indexation.
• Oversupply: Old Tbilisi has many new guesthouses and apartments; prices in shoulder seasons are falling.

How to adapt this model

• Your rooms: rooms × 30 × peak occupancy ÷ nights per stay = stays per month cap (saturation som).
• Your own property: if the house is yours, delete the lease line — profit jumps, but count the rent you give up.
• Another city: in Samarkand, Bukhara or Almaty swap VAT rules and OTA mix (Trip.com and Yandex Travel matter there), and lower the room rate.
• More direct bookings: raise the Google Hotel Ads / website line and lower OTA lines — every stay moved off an OTA saves ≈ $31–32.

Sources

• Booking.com commission ≈ 15–18%, Airbnb host-only fee ≈ 15.5% — partner and host terms.
• Georgian VAT 18%, GEL 100,000 registration threshold, small-business status 1% up to GEL 500,000, pension 2% — Revenue Service of Georgia (rs.ge).
• Room rates, occupancy and costs in Tbilisi — estimates.
• Rooms Hotels, Fabrika — real Tbilisi hotels named as comparables.