Market Size

Define market size to assess forecast feasibility

Current Market

TAM — Total Addressable Market

users

All potential users of the product worldwide

≈ 2,520,000,000,000 ₽ / year

SAM — Serviceable Available Market

users

Users you can actually serve

≈ 630,000,000,000 ₽ / year

SOM — Serviceable Obtainable Market

users

Realistic market share within the forecast period

≈ 7,560,000,000 ₽ / year

Future Market

Market Growth

% / year

Annual TAM/SAM growth rate (CAGR)

	Sep 2025	Sep 2026	Sep 2027	Sep 2028
TAM	100,000,000	125,000,000	156,250,000	195,312,500
SAM	25,000,000	31,250,000	39,062,500	48,828,125
SOM	300,000	375,000	468,750	585,938
		+25.0% from start	+56.3% from start	+95.3% from start

Market Saturation Curve

Growth slowdown as active clients approach SOM

Acquisition rate → Market fill

Slowdown is proportional to market saturation. The closer to SOM — the fewer new clients. At 50% — sales drop by half, at 90% — only 10% of potential remains.

25% → 75%50% → 50%75% → 25%90% → 10%

Market fill → share of max sales

factor = 1 − activeCards / SOM

Impact on Model (last month)

Active Clients

5,897

/ 300,000 SOM

SOM Fill

Sales Factor

99%

of max sales

Оценка рынка: Телемедицина, Россия

TAM (100 млн) — население РФ с доступом в интернет.
SAM (25 млн) — обращались к врачу онлайн или готовы. Рынок ~25 млрд ₽ (2025). Конкуренты: СберЗдоровье, Теледоктор24, Доктис.
SOM (300 000) — за 3 года при фокусе на качество. ~1.2% от SAM.
Рост 25% — телемедицина растёт на 20–30% ежегодно.