Market Size
Define market size to assess forecast feasibility
Current Market
All potential users of the product worldwide
≈ 1,344,000,000,000 ₽ / year
Users you can actually serve
≈ 504,000,000,000 ₽ / year
Realistic market share within the forecast period
≈ 13,440,000,000 ₽ / year
Future Market
Annual TAM/SAM growth rate (CAGR)
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2026 | Sep 2027 | Sep 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAM | 80,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 125,000,000 | 156,250,000 |
| SAM | 30,000,000 | 37,500,000 | 46,875,000 | 58,593,750 |
| SOM | 800,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,250,000 | 1,562,500 |
| +25.0% from start | +56.3% from start | +95.3% from start |
Market Saturation Curve
Growth slowdown as active clients approach SOM
Slowdown is proportional to market saturation. The closer to SOM — the fewer new clients. At 50% — sales drop by half, at 90% — only 10% of potential remains.
Market fill → share of max sales
factor = 1 − activeCards / SOM
Impact on Model (last month)
Оценка рынка: Маркетплейс услуг, Россия
TAM (80 млн) — городское население РФ (18+). ~75% населения живёт в городах, основные потребители бытовых услуг.
SAM (30 млн) — пользователи, заказывающие услуги онлайн. Рынок бытовых услуг в РФ ~4 трлн ₽/год. Конкуренты: YouDo, Profi.ru, Яндекс Услуги, Авито Услуги.
SOM (800 000) — достижимая доля за 3 года. ~2.7% от SAM.
Рост 25% — онлайн-услуги растут на 20–30% ежегодно.