Market Size
Define market size to assess forecast feasibility
Current Market
All potential users of the product worldwide
≈ 1,101,600,000,000 ₽ / year
Users you can actually serve
≈ 489,600,000,000 ₽ / year
Realistic market share within the forecast period
≈ 7,344,000,000 ₽ / year
Future Market
Annual TAM/SAM growth rate (CAGR)
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2026 | Nov 2027 | Nov 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAM | 90,000,000 | 108,000,000 | 129,600,000 | 155,520,000 |
| SAM | 40,000,000 | 48,000,000 | 57,600,000 | 69,120,000 |
| SOM | 600,000 | 720,000 | 864,000 | 1,036,800 |
| +20.0% from start | +44.0% from start | +72.8% from start |
Market Saturation Curve
Growth slowdown as active clients approach SOM
Slowdown is proportional to market saturation. The closer to SOM — the fewer new clients. At 50% — sales drop by half, at 90% — only 10% of potential remains.
Market fill → share of max sales
factor = 1 − activeCards / SOM
Impact on Model (last month)
Оценка рынка: FoodTech и доставка еды, Россия
TAM (90 млн) — городское население РФ в зоне покрытия сервисов доставки.
SAM (40 млн) — регулярно заказывают еду онлайн. Рынок FoodTech ~1.5 трлн ₽ (2025). Лидеры: Яндекс Еда, Delivery Club, Самокат.
SOM (600 000) — доля за 3 года в сегменте dark kitchen. ~1.5% от SAM.
Рост 20% — FoodTech растёт на 18–22% ежегодно.