Market Size

Define market size to assess forecast feasibility

Current Market

TAM — Total Addressable Market

users

All potential users of the product worldwide

≈ 1,056,000,000,000 ₽ / year

SAM — Serviceable Available Market

users

Users you can actually serve

≈ 462,000,000,000 ₽ / year

SOM — Serviceable Obtainable Market

users

Realistic market share within the forecast period

≈ 6,600,000,000 ₽ / year

Future Market

Market Growth

% / year

Annual TAM/SAM growth rate (CAGR)

	Jan 2028	Jan 2029	Jan 2030	Jan 2031
TAM	80,000,000	104,000,000	135,200,000	175,760,000
SAM	35,000,000	45,500,000	59,150,000	76,895,000
SOM	500,000	650,000	845,000	1,098,500
		+30.0% from start	+69.0% from start	+119.7% from start

Market Saturation Curve

Growth slowdown as active clients approach SOM

Acquisition rate → Market fill

Slowdown is proportional to market saturation. The closer to SOM — the fewer new clients. At 50% — sales drop by half, at 90% — only 10% of potential remains.

25% → 75%50% → 50%75% → 25%90% → 10%

Market fill → share of max sales

factor = 1 − activeCards / SOM

Impact on Model (last month)

Active Clients

8,931

/ 500,000 SOM

SOM Fill

Sales Factor

99%

of max sales

Оценка рынка: BNPL (рассрочка), Россия

TAM (80 млн) — онлайн-покупатели в РФ. По данным АКИТ, ~80 млн россиян совершают покупки в интернете.
SAM (35 млн) — используют рассрочку при покупке. Рынок BNPL в РФ ~200 млрд ₽ (2025). Конкуренты: Долями (Т-Банк), Сплит (Яндекс), Подели (Сбер).
SOM (500 000) — реалистичная доля за 3 года. ~1.4% от SAM.
Рост 30% — BNPL растёт на 25–35% ежегодно.